.
The government of Germany, home to the euro area’s biggest economy, this month approved its largest fiscal spending increase in more than a generation. Headlined by a €500 billion infrastructure investment fund, the fiscal package could boost euro area economic growth and inflation and lead to a higher European Central Bank (ECB) policy interest rate.
Notes: The chart shows the modeled impact on euro area macroeconomic fundamentals under three German fiscal expansion scenarios, including the fiscal deficit widening by 1% of GDP, 2% of GDP, and 3% of GDP. GDP refers to the estimated cumulative impact on the level of euro area GDP by year-end 2025 and 2026. Headline consumer price index (CPI) refers to the average annual headline CPI rates. Policy rate refers to the ECB deposit facility rate by year-end.
Sources: Vanguard calculations, based on data from Bloomberg and Oxford Economics, as of 10 March, 2025.
In addition to Germany’s fiscal package, which includes an exemption from the nation’s rule against spending more than 1% of GDP on defense, increases in defense spending across Europe and the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine lead us to increase our forecasts for euro area economic growth, inflation, and the ECB policy rate.
Financing for the plan may significantly increase the supply of government-backed debt, as discussed in an analysis by Roger Hallam, Vanguard global head of rates, and Shaan Raithatha, Vanguard senior European economist. The plan unlocks “billions of euros in spending that could help kick-start Germany’s flagging economy, which has been contracting for more than two years,” the pair write.
We have forecasts for the performance of major asset classes, based on the 31 December, 2024, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model®. Equity returns reflect a range of 2 percentage points around the 50th percentile of the distribution of probable outcomes. Fixed income returns reflect a 1-point range around the 50th percentile. More extreme returns are possible.
Australian equities: 4.5%–6.5% (21.8% median volatility)
Global equities ex-Australia (unhedged): 4.1%–6.1% (18.8%)
Australian aggregate bonds: 4.1%–5.1% (5.6%)
Global bonds ex-Australia (hedged): 4.4%–5.4% (5.0%)
Notes: These probabilistic return assumptions depend on current market conditions and, as such, may change over time.
Source: Vanguard Investment Strategy Group.
IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from the VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modelled asset class. Simulations are as of 31 December, 2024. Results from the model may vary with each use and over time.
The views below are those of the global economics and markets team of Vanguard Investment Strategy Group as of March 20, 2025.
Australia's economy has shown resilience, avoiding recession despite aggressive monetary tightening by the central bank.
We expect:
Uncertainty around tariffs, immigration, and other policy is likely to weigh on the economy in 2025. Real-time signals point to a material slowing of growth in the first quarter. In its March 18 GDP Now estimate, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta anticipated a first-quarter economic contraction.
Increased policy uncertainty has prompted us to downgrade our 2025 U.S. growth forecast and to raise our inflation forecast.
We now expect:
Trade and tariff uncertainties have prompted us to revise our forecasts for Canadian economic growth, unemployment, core inflation, and the policy rate set by the Bank of Canada.
We now expect:
A major infrastructure and defense program announced by Germany’s new government is set to increase the nation’s fiscal spending, leading us to upgrade our euro area growth and inflation forecasts and our European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate view.
We now expect:
The economy of the United Kingdom recently has been characterised by sluggish growth and moderating but elevated price and wage pressures. On March 20, the central bank’s policymakers maintained their 4.5% target interest rate, noting a gradual approach to further monetary policy adjustments.
We expect:
Recent economic conditions in Japan have been marked by a strengthening wage-price spiral and a gradual recovery in private consumption, which is expected to continue in 2025.
We further expect:
China's economy has appeared robust in the first quarter of 2025, but underlying headwinds suggest slower growth for the rest of the year.
We expect:
Recent economic conditions in emerging markets have been mixed. Mexico's economy contracted by 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and inflation remains a concern, while Brazil has seen a significant rise in inflation, leading the central bank to raise its policy interest rate to 14.25% to combat rising prices.
In Mexico, we expect:
Notes: All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.
Investments in bonds are subject to interest rate, credit, and inflation risk.
Investments in stocks and bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and currency risk. These risks are especially high in emerging markets.
IMPORTANT: The projections and other information generated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. VCMM results will vary with each use and over time.
The VCMM projections are based on a statistical analysis of historical data. Future returns may behave differently from the historical patterns captured in the VCMM. More important, the VCMM may be underestimating extreme negative scenarios unobserved in the historical period on which the model estimation is based.
The Vanguard Capital Markets Model® is a proprietary financial simulation tool developed and maintained by Vanguard’s primary investment research and advice teams. The model forecasts distributions of future returns for a wide array of broad asset classes. Those asset classes include U.S. and international equity markets, several maturities of the U.S. Treasury and corporate fixed income markets, international fixed income markets, U.S. money markets, commodities, and certain alternative investment strategies. The theoretical and empirical foundation for the Vanguard Capital Markets Model is that the returns of various asset classes reflect the compensation investors require for bearing different types of systematic risk (beta). At the core of the model are estimates of the dynamic statistical relationship between risk factors and asset returns, obtained from statistical analysis based on available monthly financial and economic data from as early as 1960. Using a system of estimated equations, the model then applies a Monte Carlo simulation method to project the estimated interrelationships among risk factors and asset classes as well as uncertainty and randomness over time. The model generates a large set of simulated outcomes for each asset class over several time horizons. Forecasts are obtained by computing measures of central tendency in these simulations. Results produced by the tool will vary with each use and over time.
This article contains certain 'forward looking' statements. Forward looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this article are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forward-looking statements including projections, indications or guidance on future earnings or financial position and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. There can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from these statements. To the full extent permitted by law, Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd (ABN 72 072 881 086 AFSL 227263) and its directors, officers, employees, advisers, agents and intermediaries disclaim any obligation or undertaking to release any updates or revisions to the information to reflect any change in expectations or assumptions.
By Vanguard
26 March
vanguard.com.au
Director
BEc (Acc), MBA, CPA, FFin
David has been in the Financial Services Industry for nearly 30 years. He was one of the founding Directors of the successful Financial Planning and Stockbroking Practice, Henderson Gregory Forrest, for a decade. Prior to that, he held senior roles in companies such as ING, KPMG Accountants and AMP. David was previously Chairman of OAMPS Superannuation Trustee Board and currently serves as an independent Board Director for several companies.
David’s extensive experience in all forms of superannuation, including Self Managed Super Funds (SMSF), Defined Benefit Funds, retirement funding through Account Based Pensions, stockbroking with a focus on Direct Share Investment, Taxation/Remuneration Planning, Centrelink, Aged Care and business management, equip him to advise expertly on all aspects of Financial Advice.
Those with a particular interest in superannuation/SMSFs, direct share investment, salary packaging or applying for the Centrelink Pension will find his knowledge and ability in formulating and implementing creative, logical and simple wealth creation strategies a valuable asset.
David maintains a strong personalised client service focus, providing tailored solutions for clients.
Qualifications:
Memberships:
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David Forrest is an Authorised Representative of Integrity Financial (SA) Pty Ltd ABN 16 133 921 187 — AFSL No 334846
Business Finance Manager
B Bus (Acc), CPA
Michelle’s career has spanned across the Financial Services, Retirement Living and Aged Care industries working in the private sector, not for profit and more recently with the state government for over 20 years. Her experience extends to many facets of the financial services industry, having worked in superannuation administration, technical support and financial planning practice administration.
Commencing with AMP and subsequently working in commerce and accounting roles with companies such as Brambles, Adelaide Bank Retirement Services, ECH Inc and SA Health and Wellbeing, Michelle returns to financial services after working in practice financial management at Henderson Gregory Forrest. This wide range of experience from senior accounting and management roles has provided Michelle with a strong background in business administration.
With an astute financial acumen and keen interest in business improvement strategies, Michelle ensures the smooth running of the Integrity Financial Advisory practice providing valued management support to our personalised client service focus.
Qualifications:
Memberships:
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Client Service Manager
Jasmine has worked in the financial services industry for over 12 years in all areas of client administration, working with David since 2013.
Jasmine has extensive knowledge and experience in client service including implementation of advice, portfolio reporting, assisting with the establishment of Self Managed Super Funds (SMSFs), term deposit management and a long history of helping clients with their enquiries.
Jasmine’s attention to detail, yet gentle approach, means she is able to solve the trickiest of questions for our client community.
Jasmine has gained her Certificate III in Financial Services qualification.
Contact:
Senior Client Service Manager
Merrilyn has worked in the financial services industry for over 11 years in all areas of client administration, and is a new addition to our client services team, returning from Melbourne to join the team in June 2019.
Merrilyn has extensive knowledge and experience in client service including implementation of advice, managed fund administration, assisting with the establishment of Self Managed Super Funds (SMSFs) and process improvement for the previous practices she has worked with. Merrilyn’s experience with direct shares constitutes the other part of our administrative support for direct equity investments.
Merrilyn’s warm and caring nature continues to endear her to our clients and she has already established herself as a valued member of our team.
Contact: